An Prediction Market User Made $436,000 from Bets on Maduro's Downfall.
A trader made nearly half a million dollars on the ouster of Venezuela's president shortly prior to it was publicly declared, leading to inquiries about whether someone profited from non-public details of the US operation.
Changing Odds in Predictions
Wagers on Polymarket, an online prediction market, that the leader would be removed from office by the close of the month surged in the time leading up to President Donald Trump declared on the weekend that the president had been seized.
One account, which registered on the site last month and took four positions, all on the Venezuelan situation, made more than $nearly half a million from a starting bet of $32.5K.
Who placed the bet is a mystery. The user had only a blockchain identifier for identification.
Odds Fluctuate Before Public Statement
Trading information shows that users assessed the probability of a political change at just a low 6.5 percent in the late afternoon of the Friday before the event.
Yet the odds had jumped to eleven percent by the end of the day and surged in the early hours of the next day, indicating a sharp shift in positions right before the public announcement was made.
"This particular bet has all the hallmarks of a bet based on confidential knowledge," stated an industry expert.
Several of other platform users also made large payouts from similar wagers.
Political Attention Intensifies
Some lawmakers are beginning to pay attention.
A new rule put forward on the start of the week would prevent public officials from placing bets on forecasting platforms if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a market.
Market Background
Event-driven betting sites have surged in popularity in recent years, with users able to predict everything from sports to current affairs.
The industry encountered regulatory challenges under the Biden administration. However it has experienced less resistance during the Trump presidency.
Using confidential knowledge is against the law in the stock market, but there are less oversight in the event betting industry.
A spokesperson for another major platform said their site "has clear rules against trading on insider information of any form."
